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NL Hold’em Starting Hand Charts
One aspect of the game of No-Limit Hold’em that causes beginning players much grief is deciding which hands to play and which hands to dump. NL Hold’em is much more difficult than Limit Hold’em because the value of a hand depends on so many factors other than just the cards in your hand. Despite this difficulty, our coaches believe that following some general guidelines and adjusting from these is a better solution than having no guidelines at all. Given that well over half of your profitability in NL Hold’em is based on hand selection alone, we have developed these charts to help you better determine whether to play or fold.
Video Poker Percentage. 18+, T&C Apply, New Customers Only. Registering your account. By opening an account with us and/or by using the Website you acknowledge, agree and Poker Expected Value Starting Hands warrant that you:. are at least 18 years of age and above the legal age for gambling in the jurisdiction you are a. Poker is a game with variance, meaning that things are going to happen that go against the odds of them happening (sometimes seeming like they defy all possibility). However, as long as you are making decisions that have a positive expected value (+EV), you will be profitable in the long run. What exactly does expected value mean?
There are no perfect No-Limit starting hand charts. That is because there are many factors that affect your decision, and charts cannot account for all of them. Some of these include:
- The size of your opponent's stacks.
- How loose or tight, passive or aggressive, your opponents are.
- Where these opponents are located at the table – for example, does an aggressive player still have to act after you?
- Your image at the table – for example, how tight or tricky you are perceived.
That being said, these charts will serve you well in most typical low-stakes No-Limit cash games, such as games with blinds of $1/$2, and home games. These games typically have several loose players at the table, and good opportunities for winning big pots with suited connectors and pocket pairs. With practice, you will be able to be a consistently winning player with these charts as a starting point. As you improve, you'll find yourself making adjustments to these charts based on the factors listed above, and more.
AGAIN: These charts are a good starting point for beginners. Specifically, Chart #1 recommends a significant amount of limping. This is great in loose, passive games but less often seen in tougher games. You’ll find other training material on Advanced Poker Training that may recommend a more aggressive approach for more experienced players.
Note: It would be a serious mistake to apply these hand charts before reading the Frequent Asked Questions first.
CHART #1 ‐ LOOSE, PASSIVE GAME (OFTEN 4-5 LIMPERS PER HAND)
NO ONE HAS RAISED YET
- Raise Always
- Call from Early Position, otherwise raise
- Call always
- Call from Middle or Late Position if the conditions are right (see Frequently Asked Questions)
CHART #2 ‐ TIGHTER GAME (FEWER LIMPERS) OR MORE AGGRESSIVE GAME
NO ONE HAS RAISED YET
- Raise Always
- Call from Early Position, otherwise raise
- Call (or Raise) from Middle or Late Position if the conditions are right (see Frequently Asked Questions)
CHART #3 ‐ THERE HAS BEEN A SINGLE RAISE
(3‐5 TIMES THE BIG BLIND) BEFORE YOU
- Re‐Raise Always
- Call from Early Position, otherwise re‐raise
- Call always
- Call from Middle or Late Position if the conditions are right (see Frequently Asked Questions)
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
For the hands in yellow, what do you mean when you say to play these hands if the conditions are right? The hands in yellow are speculative hands. They should always be folded from Early Position. From other positions, they can be profitable given the right conditions. Some of the questions to ask yourself:
- Are there other players who have called so far (the more, the better)?
- Are the players who have called playing poorly after the flop? Will they pay me off if I hit something?
- Is there an aggressive player still to act behind me (you might get raised and have to fold)?
- If there has been a raise and no other callers, what chance do I have of using my position after the flop to win the hand even if I don't improve (Chart #3 only)?
Why does Chart #2 say to sometimes raise with the hands in yellow, but Chart #1 does not? We have different goals in mind. Using Chart #1, we want to call to encourage additional players to enter the pot. These hands will be immensely profitable when our loose, passive opponents enter the hand, and get trapped when we flop a set, or make a well-disguised straight. When using Chart #2, however, we want to size up the opponents still to act. If they are tight, we can raise. Sometimes, we'll pick up the blinds. Other times, our pre-flop aggression will allow us to take down the pot on the flop.
What's the difference between AKs and AKo? AKs means an Ace and King of the same suit. AKo means an Ace and King of different suits.
What are early, middle, and late position? Early Position is generally the first 2 (in a nine player game) or 3 (in a ten player game) positions after the blinds. Late Position is the “cutoff” position (to the right of the dealer), and dealer button positions. Middle Position is everything in between.
How much should I raise? As a general rule, raise 3 to 4 times the big blind, plus 1 extra big blind for every player who has called before you. So if there are 2 callers already, raise between 5 and 6 times the big blind.
What if someone raises after I call? Whether you call the raise depends on how much money the raiser has for you to win, how many other players are involved, and what type of hand you have. As a general rule, if you have a pocket pair, lean towards calling. If there are a lot of other players (and therefore a big pot), lean towards calling. In general, fold suited connectors from early position. Fold hands like KQ that don't play well against a raiser.
How do I play from the blinds? From the small blind, play the same hands you would play from late position, plus a few more. But don't call with junk hands like T5o, just because it is “cheap”. From the big blind, if there is a raise to you, play like you would if you had already called from early position.
The chart says to fold KQo to a raise. Really? Yes, this hand performs very poorly against typical raising hands. Against AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ, you are a big underdog. Other typical raising hands like JJ, TT, 99, AJs, are slightly ahead of you as well. The only time you might call or re-raise is from late position, if the opener was in middle or late position, indicating they might have a wider range of hands.
I was told to fold AJo from Early Position, why do you say to call with it? Folding AJo is not a bad idea in many games. We included it because, at low stakes tables (even tight or aggressive ones), the players are often playing badly enough after the flop that it can be profitable. We used data from millions of hands of low-limit poker to analyze this. The same could be said for KQo, ATs, and KJs – you can make a small profit in the long run at most low-stakes games, but folding would be perfectly acceptable from early position.
Can I use these charts in a NL Hold'em tournament? The charts would be best applicable to the early stages of a NL tournament, when everyone has a deep stack. In the middle and later stages, they should not be used.
Poker Starting Hands By Position
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An important concept that most winning Texas holdem players
understand is expected value.
understand is expected value.
The expected value is the average amount you win or lose on a
situation if you were able to play the exact same situation
thousands of times.
situation if you were able to play the exact same situation
thousands of times.
It can be difficult to understand expected value on a hand
for hand basis, but if you ran a situation 100 times it can help
make it clear.
for hand basis, but if you ran a situation 100 times it can help
make it clear.
Here’s an example:
You’re finished with the betting round on the turn and are
waiting for the river card to be dealt. You have four cards to a
flush and if you complete the flush you’ll win the hand and if
you don’t complete your flush you’ll lose the hand. Nine out of
the 46 remaining unseen cards win the hand for you and there’s
$100 in the pot.
waiting for the river card to be dealt. You have four cards to a
flush and if you complete the flush you’ll win the hand and if
you don’t complete your flush you’ll lose the hand. Nine out of
the 46 remaining unseen cards win the hand for you and there’s
$100 in the pot.
The percentages say you’ll win the hand 19.57% of the time.
You can figure the percentage yourself by dividing nine by 46.
You can figure the percentage yourself by dividing nine by 46.
If you play the exact same situation 100 times you win 20
times and lose 80 times. We rounded the 19.57% up to 20. Graton casino recent slot winners.
times and lose 80 times. We rounded the 19.57% up to 20. Graton casino recent slot winners.
So 20 times you win $100 for a total win of $2,000. If you
divide $2,000 by 100 times you end up with the average win, or
expected value for this situation. In this case the expected
value is $20.
divide $2,000 by 100 times you end up with the average win, or
expected value for this situation. In this case the expected
value is $20.
This is a simplified example and isn’t especially useful at
the holdem tables. But if we take the reasoning and mathematics
behind what you just learned a bit deeper you can find a way
expected value can be quite valuable and useful at the Texas
holdem tables.
the holdem tables. But if we take the reasoning and mathematics
behind what you just learned a bit deeper you can find a way
expected value can be quite valuable and useful at the Texas
holdem tables.
If you take this example to the next level consider this
situation.
situation.
In the same hand after the turn card has been dealt your
opponent bets $20 into a $60 pot, you can use expected value to
determine if you should call or fold.
opponent bets $20 into a $60 pot, you can use expected value to
determine if you should call or fold.
The cost of the call, $20, is multiplied by 100 to come up
with a total cost of $2,000 to play the situation 100 times. The
20 times you win the hand you win $100. 20 times $100 is $2,000.
So it looks like your expected value is 0 in this situation.
with a total cost of $2,000 to play the situation 100 times. The
20 times you win the hand you win $100. 20 times $100 is $2,000.
So it looks like your expected value is 0 in this situation.
But there’s still one thing to consider. What happens on the
river when you miss your hand and when you hit your hand? If you
don’t check and fold on the river every single time you miss
your hand your expected value goes below even.
river when you miss your hand and when you hit your hand? If you
don’t check and fold on the river every single time you miss
your hand your expected value goes below even.
Will your opponent ever call a bet on the river if you hit
your flush? The answer is certainly yes. They might not call
often, but you can get action on the river with a flush. This
actually pushes the expected value of a hand like this to the
positive side.
your flush? The answer is certainly yes. They might not call
often, but you can get action on the river with a flush. This
actually pushes the expected value of a hand like this to the
positive side.
As a Texas holdem player you need to make it your goal to
find as many positive expectation situations as possible and
play in every one of them possible. You also need to avoid
negative expected value situations like the plague.
find as many positive expectation situations as possible and
play in every one of them possible. You also need to avoid
negative expected value situations like the plague.
The magic of positive expectation is the short term results
don’t mean anything. If you consistently put yourself in
positive expectation situations you’ll win money in the long
run.
don’t mean anything. If you consistently put yourself in
positive expectation situations you’ll win money in the long
run.
Statistical laws show you have to make money in the long run
if you always play in positive expectation situations.
if you always play in positive expectation situations.
Here’s a list of a few positive expectation situations:
- Getting all in pre flop with a better hand than your opponent. Different
hand strengths have different positive expectation spreads, but
any advantage will pay off in long term profit. Pocket aces have
a huge positive expectation over seven two off suit, but even a
nine seven off suit has a long term advantage over eight six off
suit that pays off over time. - Calling small bets in comparison to the pot size when you a flush draw,
open end straight draw, or other strong draw. - Playing in a game filled with players who aren’t as good as you. It’s
difficult to determine an exact expected value amount in this
situation but it’s profitable. - Leaving a table immediately when you realize every other player is better
than you. You don’t win money in this situation, but you lose
less so it’s a positive play.
Expected value is often shortened to EV. You may see positive
expected value listed as +EV or negative expected value listed
as –EV.
expected value listed as +EV or negative expected value listed
as –EV.
One of the biggest mistakes Texas holdem players make when
trying to wrap their head around expected value is trying to
figure out how the money they’ve already placed in the pot gets
figured into the equation.
trying to wrap their head around expected value is trying to
figure out how the money they’ve already placed in the pot gets
figured into the equation.
The answer is simple, but most players have a hard time with
it. The money you’ve already put in the pot is only considered
in the pot size. In other words, the money stops being yours as
soon as it goes in the pot.
it. The money you’ve already put in the pot is only considered
in the pot size. In other words, the money stops being yours as
soon as it goes in the pot.
If you make a positive expected value play on every decision
of the hand everything else will take care of itself.
of the hand everything else will take care of itself.
Examples of Expected Value
The best way to learn how to determine expected value in
Texas holdem is to practice. This section includes many examples
so you can practice for free. When you practice at the tables it
can cost you money.
Texas holdem is to practice. This section includes many examples
so you can practice for free. When you practice at the tables it
can cost you money.
Take a few minutes and try to figure out the correct answer
before looking at the solution. Remember to run the situation as
if it was identical 100 times. Just follow the simple steps used
in the opening section.
before looking at the solution. Remember to run the situation as
if it was identical 100 times. Just follow the simple steps used
in the opening section.
The examples all come first and the solutions are further
down the section. This way you can’t cheat to see the answers
before you try to figure out the answers unless you want to. All
of the examples are using Texas holdem.
down the section. This way you can’t cheat to see the answers
before you try to figure out the answers unless you want to. All
of the examples are using Texas holdem.
Example 1
![Hands Hands](/uploads/1/3/4/8/134887718/433895603.gif)
On the river of a no limit game you have the top pair with a
good kicker but only think you have a 20% chance of having the
winning hand. The pot has $500 in it, you check, and your only
opponent bets $250.
good kicker but only think you have a 20% chance of having the
winning hand. The pot has $500 in it, you check, and your only
opponent bets $250.
Is it a positive or negative expected value to call?
Example 2
You’re playing a $10 / $20 limit game and after the turn you
have an open end straight draw and a flush draw. The pot has
$100 in it, you check and your opponent bets $20.
have an open end straight draw and a flush draw. The pot has
$100 in it, you check and your opponent bets $20.
If you raise your opponent will call on the turn and call one
bet on the river if you hit your straight, but will fold to a
bet if you hit your flush. If you miss your draws you check and
fold to a bet on the river.
bet on the river if you hit your straight, but will fold to a
bet if you hit your flush. If you miss your draws you check and
fold to a bet on the river.
Example 3
On the river of a no limit game the pot has $2,000 in it and
you just hit a full house on a board that has three suited
cards. The way the hand played out you’re relatively sure your
opponent hit the flush. You have to act first and are trying to
determine the best way to extract the maximum expected value
from the situation.
you just hit a full house on a board that has three suited
cards. The way the hand played out you’re relatively sure your
opponent hit the flush. You have to act first and are trying to
determine the best way to extract the maximum expected value
from the situation.
You can check and raise if your opponent bets or you can bet.
The mounts of bets and raises complicate the situation, but
being a winning Texas holdem player is complicated, so you have
to make your best educated guess when situations like this come
up.
The mounts of bets and raises complicate the situation, but
being a winning Texas holdem player is complicated, so you have
to make your best educated guess when situations like this come
up.
Based on what you know about your opponent if you make a bet
up to $2,000 she’ll call. If you check she’ll bet $500 and call
up to a re-raise of $1,000.
up to $2,000 she’ll call. If you check she’ll bet $500 and call
up to a re-raise of $1,000.
Determine the expected value of each decision.
Example 4
You’re playing in a $20 / $40 limit game and flop an open end
straight draw. The pot has $80 in it at the start of the round,
the first player bets, the second folds, the third calls, and
you’re last to act. The pot now has $120 in it and you have to
call a $20 bet to see the turn.
straight draw. The pot has $80 in it at the start of the round,
the first player bets, the second folds, the third calls, and
you’re last to act. The pot now has $120 in it and you have to
call a $20 bet to see the turn.
Does this situation offer a positive expectation to call?
![Hands Hands](/uploads/1/3/4/8/134887718/138866301.jpg)
How does the fact that the turn and river both have to be
played figure into your decision?
played figure into your decision?
Example 5
After the river has been dealt you have top pair and top
kicker. You determine you have a 40% chance of winning the hand
because the way the hand has played out your opponent either has
top pair with a worse kicker or hit two pair. Your opponent has
played the hand aggressively enough that you’ve tilted the
percentage to her favor.
kicker. You determine you have a 40% chance of winning the hand
because the way the hand has played out your opponent either has
top pair with a worse kicker or hit two pair. Your opponent has
played the hand aggressively enough that you’ve tilted the
percentage to her favor.
The pot has $1,000 in it before your opponent bets $800. Once
you know the break-even expected value it’s easy to see if a
call or fold is more profitable in the long run.
you know the break-even expected value it’s easy to see if a
call or fold is more profitable in the long run.
If your percentage is correct what’s your expected value if
you call?
you call?
How much would your opponent have to bet to make your call a
break even expected value?
break even expected value?
Solution 1
If you call $250 100 times your total investment is $25,000.
The total amount of the pot is $1,000 after you call. Winning
20% of the time means you win a total of $20,000 when you win.
This is a negative expected value of $5,000 total and $50 on
average.
The total amount of the pot is $1,000 after you call. Winning
20% of the time means you win a total of $20,000 when you win.
This is a negative expected value of $5,000 total and $50 on
average.
You need to win this hand at least 25% of the time to break
even. You know this because the total investment stays the same,
creating a total amount of $25,000. You divide this by the size
of the pot to find the break-even point. $25,000 divided by
$1,000 is 25, so you need to win 25 out of 100 times, or 25%.
even. You know this because the total investment stays the same,
creating a total amount of $25,000. You divide this by the size
of the pot to find the break-even point. $25,000 divided by
$1,000 is 25, so you need to win 25 out of 100 times, or 25%.
Solution 2
This situation has a host of possibilities so you need to
consider them one at a time. Before moving deeper you need to
decide if a fold or call is correct.
consider them one at a time. Before moving deeper you need to
decide if a fold or call is correct.
You’re faced with a call of $20 making a total pot of $140.
You have 15 outs out of 46 unseen cards for a percentage of 33%
chance to win. Your total investment over 100 hands is $2,000
and the 33 hands you win return $4,620. This creates an average
positive EV of $26.20 per hand. So you can rule out a fold.
You have 15 outs out of 46 unseen cards for a percentage of 33%
chance to win. Your total investment over 100 hands is $2,000
and the 33 hands you win return $4,620. This creates an average
positive EV of $26.20 per hand. So you can rule out a fold.
Now let’s consider a raise. Three things can happen if you
raise, so you need to consider each of them and then combine the
results.
raise, so you need to consider each of them and then combine the
results.
The first thing that can happen is you raise, your opponent
calls, and you miss your draws. Your raise costs $40 so over 100
hands you lose $4,000, or $40 on average. This happens 31 times
out of every 46 possibilities, or 67 times out of 100.
calls, and you miss your draws. Your raise costs $40 so over 100
hands you lose $4,000, or $40 on average. This happens 31 times
out of every 46 possibilities, or 67 times out of 100.
The second possibility is you raise, your opponent calls, you
hit a flush, and you don’t win additional money on the river.
Over 100 hands your raise still costs $40, making a total pot of
$180. You win $180 100 times for a total win of $18,000. When
you subtract your investment of $4,000 you have a positive
expectation of $14,000. This is an average of $140 per hand. You
hit your flush 20 out of 100 hands.
hit a flush, and you don’t win additional money on the river.
Over 100 hands your raise still costs $40, making a total pot of
$180. You win $180 100 times for a total win of $18,000. When
you subtract your investment of $4,000 you have a positive
expectation of $14,000. This is an average of $140 per hand. You
hit your flush 20 out of 100 hands.
The third possibility is you hit your straight. In this case
you bet $40 on the turn and another $20 on the river for a total
investment over 100 hands of $6,000. The total pot size after
all betting on the river is $220, for a total win of $22,000.
This is an average win of $160 per hand. You hit your straight
and not a flush 13 out of 100 hands.
you bet $40 on the turn and another $20 on the river for a total
investment over 100 hands of $6,000. The total pot size after
all betting on the river is $220, for a total win of $22,000.
This is an average win of $160 per hand. You hit your straight
and not a flush 13 out of 100 hands.
When you combine the results you have the following:
- 67 times out of 100 you lose $40.
- 20 times out of 100 you hit your flush and win $140.
- 13 times out of 100 you hit your straight and win $160
- 67 times 40 = a loss of $2,680
- 20 times $140 = a win of $2,800
- 13 times $160 = a win of $2,080
This makes a total positive expected value of $2,200,
creating an average of a $22 +EV per hand.
creating an average of a $22 +EV per hand.
When you compare this to the +EV of $26.20 per hand created
by calling it shows both options are profitable but a call is
correct in this situation.
by calling it shows both options are profitable but a call is
correct in this situation.
Realize that if you can extract more money on the river than
in this example a raise may increase to a point where it has the
higher EV.
in this example a raise may increase to a point where it has the
higher EV.
Solution 3
In the first situation a bet of $2,000 in 100 hands is a
total investment of $200,000. The total pot size with your
opponents call is $6,000, for a total win over 100 hands of
$600,000. This is a positive expectation of $400,000 over 100
hands for an average of $4,000.
total investment of $200,000. The total pot size with your
opponents call is $6,000, for a total win over 100 hands of
$600,000. This is a positive expectation of $400,000 over 100
hands for an average of $4,000.
The second situation requires a total bet of $1,500, covering
the $500 bet and the $1,000 raise. This makes a total investment
of $150,000 over 100 hands. The total pot size is $5,000 so the
total win over 100 hands is $500,000. This creates an expected
average value of $3,500.
the $500 bet and the $1,000 raise. This makes a total investment
of $150,000 over 100 hands. The total pot size is $5,000 so the
total win over 100 hands is $500,000. This creates an expected
average value of $3,500.
So the correct play is to bet $2,000.
This may seem like a simplified example, but this is a
perfect example of the complicated situations you fin at the
holdem tables on a regular basis. When you start considering all
of the possible outcomes for each hand being able to determine
expected value goes a long way to maximizing your long term
profit.
perfect example of the complicated situations you fin at the
holdem tables on a regular basis. When you start considering all
of the possible outcomes for each hand being able to determine
expected value goes a long way to maximizing your long term
profit.
Solution 4
The first thing to determine is the expected value from the
flop to the turn. You’ve seen five cards so the deck has 47
unseen cards and eight of them complete your straight. This
means that 17% of the time you’ll complete your straight on the
turn.
flop to the turn. You’ve seen five cards so the deck has 47
unseen cards and eight of them complete your straight. This
means that 17% of the time you’ll complete your straight on the
turn.
It costs you $2,000 to call the $20 bet 100 times and the 17
times you win the total amount won will be $2,380, assuming no
further action in the hand.
times you win the total amount won will be $2,380, assuming no
further action in the hand.
But the odds of no further action taking place in the hand
are slim. Also, what happens if you miss your draw on the flop?
are slim. Also, what happens if you miss your draw on the flop?
Unless the expected value is close to even you don’t need to
determine how likely you’ll get additional action is when you
hit. If the EV is close to even or slightly negative the
expected future action is enough to push the percentages to make
a call correct. That’s all you need to know to continue with the
hand based on possible future action.
determine how likely you’ll get additional action is when you
hit. If the EV is close to even or slightly negative the
expected future action is enough to push the percentages to make
a call correct. That’s all you need to know to continue with the
hand based on possible future action.
The next thing to consider is what happens when you miss your
draw on the turn. The pot is now $140 and the bets are $40. The
only way you’d ever consider folding in this situation is if you
get caught in a bidding war between the other two opponents, and
even then with capped betting rounds the expected value says to
call.
draw on the turn. The pot is now $140 and the bets are $40. The
only way you’d ever consider folding in this situation is if you
get caught in a bidding war between the other two opponents, and
even then with capped betting rounds the expected value says to
call.
More likely you’ll face a single bet or two bets at most. The
first thing you need to do is determine if the situation still
offers a positive expectation if you face two bets.
first thing you need to do is determine if the situation still
offers a positive expectation if you face two bets.
Two bets from each of your opponents make the pot $300 and
you have to call $80, making a total pot size of $380.
you have to call $80, making a total pot size of $380.
You’ve now seen six cards, leaving 46 unseen and you still
have eight outs. Your percentage chance of winning has improved
slightly but it still rounds down to 17%.
have eight outs. Your percentage chance of winning has improved
slightly but it still rounds down to 17%.
Your total cost to call 100 times is $8,000. The 17 times you
win you get $380, for a total win of $6,460, creating a negative
expectation situation of $15.40 on average.
win you get $380, for a total win of $6,460, creating a negative
expectation situation of $15.40 on average.
Video Poker Expected Value
This is where you need to make a judgment call based on how
much you think you can extract from your opponents on the river
when you hit your hand. You need to win an average of $470 total
instead of the $380 listed above to break even, so can you get
over two additional bets on the river when you hit?
much you think you can extract from your opponents on the river
when you hit your hand. You need to win an average of $470 total
instead of the $380 listed above to break even, so can you get
over two additional bets on the river when you hit?
An open end straight draw is harder to see when it hits for
your opponents than a flush, and you’re in good position, so you
can probably push your wins enough when you hit to make this a
break even play or a slightly positive EV play. But it’s close,
so it really helps to know your opponents.
your opponents than a flush, and you’re in good position, so you
can probably push your wins enough when you hit to make this a
break even play or a slightly positive EV play. But it’s close,
so it really helps to know your opponents.
What about if you only face a single bet from each of your
opponents?
opponents?
In this case you have to call a $40 bet and the size of the
pot is $260 with both opponent’s bets and your call. It costs
$4,000 for 100 calls and the 17 times you win the total amount
is $4,420. This is a positive expected value and is a clear
calling situation. You’ll actually win more when you hit your
hand in most situations from action on the river.
pot is $260 with both opponent’s bets and your call. It costs
$4,000 for 100 calls and the 17 times you win the total amount
is $4,420. This is a positive expected value and is a clear
calling situation. You’ll actually win more when you hit your
hand in most situations from action on the river.
The last thing to think about is if you should actually raise
on the flop.
on the flop.
If you raise what will your opponents do? To get a true
picture you need to run every possible situation, but for the
sake of this discussion let’s assume one opponent folds and the
other calls.
picture you need to run every possible situation, but for the
sake of this discussion let’s assume one opponent folds and the
other calls.
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The pot has $120 in it, you raise $40, and the remaining
opponent calls $20 for a total pot of $180. Your raise in 100
hands totals $4,000 and you still win 17 times. 17 times $180 is
only $3,060, creating a negative expectation situation.
opponent calls $20 for a total pot of $180. Your raise in 100
hands totals $4,000 and you still win 17 times. 17 times $180 is
only $3,060, creating a negative expectation situation.
When you factor in the possibility of both opponents folding
and winning more bets on the turn and river when you hit it
still isn’t enough to make a raise enough. Remember that
sometimes your opponent will re-raise, making the situation
worse.
and winning more bets on the turn and river when you hit it
still isn’t enough to make a raise enough. Remember that
sometimes your opponent will re-raise, making the situation
worse.
This is a complicated example so if you don’t understand all
of it, take the time to go back over it and study it. None of
the calculations are overly complicated, but it can be confusing
when you run into so many of them.
of it, take the time to go back over it and study it. None of
the calculations are overly complicated, but it can be confusing
when you run into so many of them.
Solution 5
It’s going to cost you $800 to call, so you multiply that by
100. So your total cost is $80,000. The 40 times out of 100 that
you win you’ll win a pot of $2,600. 40 times $2,600 is $104,000.
So the total amount of your wins minus the cost of making the
call is $24,000. If you divide this by 100 your average expected
value is $240 every time you’re in this situation.
100. So your total cost is $80,000. The 40 times out of 100 that
you win you’ll win a pot of $2,600. 40 times $2,600 is $104,000.
So the total amount of your wins minus the cost of making the
call is $24,000. If you divide this by 100 your average expected
value is $240 every time you’re in this situation.
To determine the break even amount your opponent would need
to bet requires a slightly different calculation. Your opponent
would need to bet $2,000 to create a situation where your
expected value is zero.
to bet requires a slightly different calculation. Your opponent
would need to bet $2,000 to create a situation where your
expected value is zero.
A bet of $2,000 costs $200,000 to call 100 times. The pot is
$5,000, so when you win 40 out of 100 times you win a total of
$200,000, creating a zero expected value.
$5,000, so when you win 40 out of 100 times you win a total of
$200,000, creating a zero expected value.
Expected Value Holdem Hands
This means that any bet below $2,000 in this situation has a
positive EV to call.
positive EV to call.
More importantly, consider how important it can be to call
almost every bet on the river if you have a 40% chance to win.
You can work these numbers for any percentage chance of winning
to determine if a situation offers positive or negative EV. Most
players fold too often to small and medium bets on the river.
almost every bet on the river if you have a 40% chance to win.
You can work these numbers for any percentage chance of winning
to determine if a situation offers positive or negative EV. Most
players fold too often to small and medium bets on the river.
You can use a complicated mathematical formula to determine
this amount, but it’s simpler for 99% of the population to do a
simple progression of possibilities.
this amount, but it’s simpler for 99% of the population to do a
simple progression of possibilities.
Here’s exactly how we determined that a $2,000 bet is the
break-even point.
break-even point.
Poker Expected Value Calculator
We know that a bet of $800 creates a large positive
expectation situation so a break-even will need to be quite a
bit larger than that. So we built a small table and started
plugging in bets.
expectation situation so a break-even will need to be quite a
bit larger than that. So we built a small table and started
plugging in bets.
Bet Amount | Total Pot | Call X100 | 40 Wins X Pot | Average EV |
---|---|---|---|---|
$1,000 | $3,000 | $100,000 | $120,000 | $200 |
$1,500 | $4,000 | $150,000 | $160,000 | $100 |
$2,000 | $5,000 | $200,000 | $200,000 | $0 |
Don’t be scared or intimidated by these calculations. Once
you do a few of them you’ll quickly learn they aren’t too
difficult. Pick a different situation and build a table to find
the correct break-even point.
you do a few of them you’ll quickly learn they aren’t too
difficult. Pick a different situation and build a table to find
the correct break-even point.
Poker Starting Hand Chart
You need to practice these quite a bit so you learn to
closely approximate your expected value at the table. It’s
difficult to determine all of this in your head, but as you gain
experience you’ll learn to recognize profitable and unprofitable
situations.
closely approximate your expected value at the table. It’s
difficult to determine all of this in your head, but as you gain
experience you’ll learn to recognize profitable and unprofitable
situations.
Summary
Expected value is just one of the many tools that winning
Texas holdem, players use, but it’s an important one. Winning
players strive to fin and exploit positive EV plays. If you can
enter more positive plays than negative ones you’re well on your
way to a long term winning career.
Texas holdem, players use, but it’s an important one. Winning
players strive to fin and exploit positive EV plays. If you can
enter more positive plays than negative ones you’re well on your
way to a long term winning career.
Go over the examples on this page and practice the
calculations every chance you get until it becomes easy. It may
be difficult at first but if you stick with it you’ll be glad
you did and it’ll pay for itself for years to come.
calculations every chance you get until it becomes easy. It may
be difficult at first but if you stick with it you’ll be glad
you did and it’ll pay for itself for years to come.